The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1453 – Reviewing the Meatball Draft Pt. 3
9/20/25
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MEATBALL DRAFT POSITION BREAKDOWN
- Justin’s 2025 takeaway 1:30
- Joe’s 2025 takeaway 2:55
- Hunter Greene 7:44
- Joe Ryan
- Bryan Woo 25:00ish
- Hunter Brown, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cristopher Sánchez trio 29:20
- Spencer Schwellenbach 34:13
- Framber Valdez 38:16
- Cole Ragans 45:00
- Chase Burns & Jacob Misiorowski 51:50ish
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Approximately 61 minutes of joyous analysis.
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It’s maddening every time listening to Paul completely dismissing prior injury and/or conflating high general injury risk among pitchers. There are so many peer reviewed studies showing that prior injury—whether to arm or trunk or legs—increases future injury incidence.
Anecdotally, Glasnow is the poster boy for this “they all get injured” idea. He’s been worth the pick twice in 8 years. Snell this year (and most of his career). Ohh, even Cole got injured? Okay but he was also a horse 9/10 times! Theres gotta be some value discount for the oft-injured guys.
I don’t deny that prior injury is the best indicator of future injury, but just pitching is a great indicator of future injury, too. With IP samples getting lower and lower and lower, the value proposition to overvalue “stability” makes no sense to me. It’s betting on an illusion. Gerrit Cole was a 1st-2nd rounder…. Tyler Glasnow’s never been, there’s your discount. But the idea of a safe pitcher is just a mirage. I’d rather just take the best talent